គិតត្រឹមម៉ោង 12:00 អធ្រាត្រ ថ្ងៃទី 22 ខែធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ 2025 ថៃបានអនុវត្តការវាយប្រហារតាមអាកាសប្រហែល 23 លើកលើប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ដោយវាយបំផ្លាញទាំងគោលដៅយោធា និងហេដ្ឋារចនាសម្ព័ន្ធស៊ីវិល រួមទាំងសាលាបឋមសិក្សា វត្តអារាម និងស្ពាន (ការទម្លាក់គ្រាប់បែកនីមួយៗមានរាយបញ្ជីខាងក្រោម)។ កម្រិតខ្លាំងក្លានៃការវាយប្រហារតាមអាកាសបានកើនឡើង ដោយមាន 5 លើកនៅថ្ងៃទី 18 ខែធ្នូ និង 4 លើកទៀតនៅថ្ងៃទី 19 ខែធ្នូ។
កម្ពុជាគ្មានជម្រើសក្រៅពីទ្រាំទ្រទទួលរងការទម្លាក់គ្រាប់បែក ដែលបានបណ្ដាលឲ្យគ្រួសារ កុមារ និងមនុស្សចាស់កម្ពុជាចំនួន 518,611 ត្រូវផ្លាស់ទីលំនៅនៅក្នុងប្រទេស ហើយឥឡូវនេះកំពុងរស់នៅក្នុងតង់បណ្តោះអាសន្នតាមជំរំ។(1) ថៃក៏រាយការណ៍ថា មានមនុស្ស 213,072 នាក់ត្រូវបានផ្លាស់ទីលំនៅដោយការប្រុងប្រយ័ត្ន ព្រោះការបាញ់កាំភ្លើងធំរបស់កម្ពុជា។(2) ជនជាតិខ្មែរនៅទាំងពីរខាងព្រំដែនកំពុងទទួលរងទុក្ខលំបាក។ ទោះបីគេដឹងជាទូទៅថា ប្រជាជនកម្ពុជាប្រហែល 95% ជាជនជាតិខ្មែរ ក៏ខេត្តថៃតាមបណ្ដោយព្រំដែនក៏មានជនជាតិខ្មែររស់នៅច្រើនផងដែរ ដូចជា ខេត្តសូរិន (Surin) ដែលត្រូវបានប៉ាន់ប្រមាណថា យ៉ាងហោចណាស់ 63% ជាជនជាតិខ្មែរ ទោះបីមានការលាយបញ្ចូលភាសាយ៉ាងទូលំទូលាយក៏ដោយ។(3)
ថៃបានយល់ព្រមលើបទឈប់បាញ់ដោយគ្មានលក្ខខណ្ឌ នៅថ្ងៃទី 28 ខែកក្កដា ឆ្នាំ 2025 ដែលត្រូវបានសម្របសម្រួលដោយប្រធានាធិបតីសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក Trump ដែលបានកំណត់អត្រាពន្ធគយពាណិជ្ជកម្មទៅវិញទៅមក 19% ដែលមានលក្ខណៈអនុគ្រោះជាសមរម្យសម្រាប់ប្រទេសនីមួយៗ។ នេះជាជ័យជម្នះផ្នែកសេដ្ឋកិច្ចសម្រាប់វិស័យផលិតកម្មរបស់ថៃ ដោយមកដល់ពេលនោះ ថៃមិនទាន់បានផ្តល់សម្បទានពាណិជ្ជកម្មណាមួយទៅសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកឡើយ។ ផ្ទុយទៅវិញ កម្ពុជាបានផ្តល់សម្បទានជាច្រើនទៅសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិករួចហើយ រួមទាំងការអនុញ្ញាតឲ្យទំនិញផលិតនៅអាមេរិកទាំងអស់ចូលមកដោយគ្មានពន្ធគយ ដូចដែលបានជូនដំណឹងទៅកាន់តំណាងពាណិជ្ជកម្មសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក នៅថ្ងៃទី 16 ខែកក្កដា ឆ្នាំ 2025 មុនពេលការប្រយុទ្ធយោធាសកម្មរវាងថៃ និងកម្ពុជា ចាប់ផ្តើមនៅថ្ងៃទី 24 ខែកក្កដា ឆ្នាំ 2025។ លទ្ធផលគឺថា ថៃត្រូវបានផ្តល់រង្វាន់សម្រាប់អំពើអាក្រក់ ដោយការឈ្លានពានដែនដីកម្ពុជារបស់ថៃ ត្រូវបានផ្អាកបណ្តោះអាសន្ន តាមរយៈការទទួលបានអត្រាពន្ធគយអាមេរិកដែលអនុគ្រោះ។
ប្រធានាធិបតី Trump បានចូលរួមអធិបតីលើការចុះហត្ថលេខាលើកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពកូឡាឡាំពួរ (Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord) ដោយនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីថៃ អនុទិន (Anutin) និងនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីកម្ពុជា ហ៊ុន ម៉ាណែត នៅថ្ងៃទី 26 ខែតុលា ឆ្នាំ 2025។ វាជាចំណុចសម្រេចចុងក្រោយនៃបទឈប់បាញ់ដែលមានប្រសិទ្ធភាពចាប់តាំងពីថ្ងៃទី 28 ខែកក្កដា។ ទោះជាយ៉ាងណា ត្រឹមតែពីរសប្តាហ៍បន្ទាប់ នៅថ្ងៃទី 10 ខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ 2025 នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីថៃ អនុទិន បានប្រកាសថា ថៃកំពុងផ្អាកកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាព ហើយថ្ងៃបន្ទាប់ នៅថ្ងៃទី 11 ខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ 2025 អនុទិនបានប្រកាសជាផ្លូវការថា កិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពបានបញ្ចប់ ហើយ “ឥតសុពលភាព”។(4),(5)
មូលហេតុផ្លូវការដែលអនុទិនបានលើកឡើងសម្រាប់ការលុបចោលកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាព គឺថា ទាហានថៃ 4 នាក់បានរងរបួសដោយមីនលើផ្លូវក្នុងព្រៃនៅតំបន់ជម្លោះ ក្នុងពេលល្បាត នៅថ្ងៃទី 10 ខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ 2025។(6) ទោះបីថៃអះអាងថា មីននោះទើបត្រូវបានដាក់ថ្មីក៏ដោយ ក៏ថៃមិនបានបង្ហាញភស្តុតាងណាមួយថា មីននោះត្រូវបានដាក់បន្ទាប់ពីការចុះហត្ថលេខាលើកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពនៅថ្ងៃទី 26 ខែតុលា ឡើយ។ ដោយសារការលុបចោលកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពដោយឯកតោភាគីពីភាគីថៃ បានបណ្ដាលឲ្យមានការស្លាប់ជាច្រើនទាំងស៊ីវិល និងយោធា ការបំផ្លាញយ៉ាងទូលំទូលាយ និងមានមនុស្សជិត 700,000 នាក់ត្រូវផ្លាស់ទីលំនៅ ការលុបចោលកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពដោយសារទាហាន 4 នាក់រងរបួស ហាក់ដូចជាការឆ្លើយតបហួសហេតុ និងមិនសមហេតុផល។
ការអំពាវនាវឲ្យធ្វើសង្គ្រាមរបស់អនុទិន អាចត្រូវបានប៉ះពាល់ដោយការគិតគូរផ្នែកនយោបាយ ដើម្បីរក្សាអំណាច។ អនុទិន ដែលជាមេដឹកនាំគណបក្ស Bhumjaithai (“Thai Pride Party”) បានក្លាយជានាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីនៅថ្ងៃទី 5 ខែកញ្ញា ឆ្នាំ 2025 ដោយមានការគាំទ្រពីគណបក្ស People’s Power Party។ គណបក្ស People’s Power Party កាន់កាប់អាសនៈ 143 នៅសភា ខណៈដែលគណបក្ស Bhumjaithai កាន់កាប់ត្រឹមតែ 71 អាសនៈប៉ុណ្ណោះ។ គណបក្ស People’s Power Party បានអំពាវនាវឲ្យមានប្រជាមតិលើរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញ ដើម្បីផ្ទេរអំណាចពីព្រឹទ្ធសភាដែលមិនបានបោះឆ្នោត និងមានឥទ្ធិពលយោធាខ្លាំង ទៅកាន់សភាជ្រើសតាំង ដែលប្រជាជនថៃបោះឆ្នោតជ្រើសតាំងដោយផ្ទាល់។ អនុទិនហាក់ដូចជាបានបោកប្រាស់គណបក្ស People’s Power Party ដោយយល់ព្រមគាំទ្រប្រជាមតិរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញដោយមិនពិត ហើយនៅសាធារណៈក៏បានគាំទ្រវារហូតដល់ថ្ងៃទី 1 ខែតុលា ឆ្នាំ 2025។(7)
ការលុបចោលកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពថ្ងៃទី 10 ខែវិច្ឆិកា របស់អនុទិន បានកើតឡើងតែបន្ទាប់ពីអនុទិនដឹងថា សភាតំណាងរាស្ត្រនឹងត្រូវរំលាយ នៅពេលសភាប្រជុំឡើងវិញនៅថ្ងៃទី 12 ខែធ្នូ ហើយនឹងមានការបោះឆ្នោតមុនកាលកំណត់។ នៅថ្ងៃទី 5 ខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ 2025 អនុទិនខ្លួនឯងបាននិយាយថា “បើយើងមិនអាចឈ្នះល្បែងនយោបាយបានទេ យើងនឹងរំលាយសភា”។ ( 8) ការរំលាយសភា និងការបោះឆ្នោតមុនកាលកំណត់ កាន់តែប្រាកដសម្រាប់អនុទិននៅថ្ងៃទី 9 ខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ 2025 នៅពេលដែល People’s Party ទាមទារឲ្យមានសម័យប្រជុំវិសេសសម្រាប់ការកែប្រែរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញ ប៉ុន្តែត្រូវបានអនុទិនបដិសេធ។(9)
ការលុបចោលកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងសន្តិភាពដោយឯកតោភាគី និងការកើនឡើងនៃការប្រយុទ្ធ គឺស្របពេលជាមួយការខិតខំរបស់អនុទិនក្នុងការរក្សាអំណាច ដែលជាការខិតខំមួយដែលហាក់ដូចជាតានតឹងខ្លាំង ព្រោះគណបក្ស Bhunjaithai របស់អនុទិនមានអាសនៈត្រឹមពាក់កណ្ដាលនៃគណបក្សសម្ព័ន្ធមិត្តរបស់ខ្លួន ហើយសម្ព័ន្ធភាពនោះក៏កំពុងដល់ទីបញ្ចប់ដោយជៀសមិនរួច។ អ្វីដែលបន្ថែមសម្ពាធឲ្យអនុទិន គឺអត្រាគាំទ្ររបស់គាត់បានធ្លាក់ដល់កម្រិតទាបបំផុត ក្នុងអំឡុងទឹកជំនន់ធ្ងន់ធ្ងរនៅហាតយ៉ៃ ភាគខាងត្បូងថៃ ពីថ្ងៃទី 21 ដល់ថ្ងៃទី 24 ខែវិច្ឆិកា ដែលរដ្ឋាភិបាលរបស់គាត់ត្រូវបានរិះគន់យ៉ាងទូលំទូលាយថា បានឆ្លើយតបយឺត និងមិនគ្រប់គ្រាន់; របាយការណ៍ Reuters បង្ហាញថា ការគាំទ្រពីសាធារណៈចំពោះអនុទិនបានធ្លាក់ពី 48% មកត្រឹម 23% ប៉ុណ្ណោះ។(10) រួមជាមួយកំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចខ្សោយប្រហែល 2% និងការថយចុះនៃចំនួនភ្ញៀវទេសចរចូលមក 7% ឱកាសរបស់អនុទិនក្នុងការឈ្នះការបោះឆ្នោតឡើងវិញកាន់តែតិចតួច។(11)
ការចាប់ផ្តើមសង្គ្រាមជាមួយកម្ពុជា នៅថ្ងៃទី 7 ខែធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ 2025 បានដាក់អនុទិនឲ្យស្ថិតក្នុងទីតាំងយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រសម្រាប់ការបោះឆ្នោតឡើងវិញ មុនពេលការរំលាយសភានៅថ្ងៃទី 12 ខែធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ 2025។
As of 12:00 a.m., December 22, 2025, Thailand has conducted approximately 23 airstrikes on Cambodia, destroying military targets as well as civilian infrastructure, including primary schools, pagodas, and bridges (each bombing is listed below). The intensity of the airstrikes has increased, with five airstrikes on December 18 and another four on December 19. While most bombings are in rural towns and districts, there are also bombings in the densely populated city of Poipet. Both Thai and Cambodian maps show the bombings within Cambodian sovereign territory.
The Thai airstrikes are unanswered by Cambodia. Cambodia does not have its own fighter aircraft or any surface-to-air defenses. Cambodia has no choice but to absorb the bombings, which have resulted in internal displacement of 518,611 Cambodian families, children, and elderly who are now surviving in make-shift tents in camps.(1) Thailand also reports 213,072 people displaced out of precaution from Cambodian artillery fire.(2) It is the ethnic Khmer people on both sides of the border that are suffering. While it is well known that Cambodia is approximately 95% Khmer, the Thai provinces along the border are also populated by Khmer people, such as Surin province which is estimated to be at least 63% Khmer despite widespread language assimilation.(3)
Thailand agreed to an unconditional ceasefire on July 28, 2025, brokered by U.S. President Trump, who granted each country a relatively favorable reciprocal trade tariff of 19%. This was an economic win for Thai manufacturing; up until that point, Thailand had not offered the U.S. any trade concessions. In contrast, Cambodia had already offered the U.S. numerous concessions, including duty-free access for all American-made goods, as conveyed to the U.S. Trade Representative on July 16, 2025, before the commencement of active military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia on July 24, 2025. The result is that Thailand was rewarded for bad behavior; Thailand’s invasion of Cambodian territory was brought to a temporary halt by being awarded a favorable U.S. tariff.
President Trump oversaw the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord by Thai Prime Minister Anutin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet on October 26, 2025. It was the culmination of the ceasefire that had been in effect since July 28. However, only two weeks later, on November 10, 2025, Thai Prime Minister Anutin announced that Thailand was suspending the peace accord, and the next day, on November 11, 2025, Anutin officially declared the peace accord over and “void”.(4),(5)
Anutin’s official reason for cancelling the peace accord was that four Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine on a jungle path in disputed territory while on patrol on November 10, 2025.(6) While Thailand claimed the landmine was newly laid, it did not provide any evidence that it had been laid after the October 26 signing of the peace accord. Given that the Thai unilateral cancellation of the peace accord has resulted in numerous civilian and military deaths, widespread destruction, and nearly 700,000 displaced people, Anutin’s cancellation of the peace accord due to the injury of four soldiers appears to be an unreasonable overreaction.
Anutin’s call for war may is influenced by political calculus to stay in power. Anutin, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party (“Thai Pride Party”) became prime minister on September 5, 2025, with the help of the People’s Power Party. The People’s Power Party held 143 seats in parliament, compared to only 71 seats held by the Bhumjaithai Party. The People’s Power Party called for a referendum on the constitution to shift power from the unelected, military-dominated Senate to the elected Parliament, which is directly elected by the Thai people. Anutin appears to have deceived the People’s Power Party by falsely agreeing to support a constitutional referendum, publicly endorsing it as late as October 1, 2025.(7)
Anutin’s November 10 cancellation of the October 26 peace accord happened only after Anutin was aware that the House would be dissolved when parliament reconvened on December 12 and there would be early elections. On November 5, 2025, Anutin himself stated, “If we can’t win the political game, we’ll dissolve the House”.8 Dissolution of parliament and early elections became even more certain for Anutin on November 9, 2025, when the People’s Party demanded an extraordinary session for constitutional amendment, which was rejected by Anutin.(9)
Anutin’s unilateral cancellation of the peace accord and escalation of fighting coincided with Anutin’s efforts to stay in power, a somewhat desperate task given that Anutin’s Bhunjaithai Party had only half the seats of its coalition part,y which was now inevitably ending that coalition. Adding to Anutin’s desperation is that his approval rating reached a low point during the disastrous Hat Yai floods in Southern Thailand from November 21-24, during which his government faced widespread criticism for a slow and insufficient response; Reuters report shows that Anutin’s public support had slipped from 48% to only 23%.(10) Together with weak economic growth of approximately 2% and a decline in tourist arrivals by 7%, Anutin’s chance at reelection was dwindling.(11)
The commencement of war with Cambodia on December 7, 2025, strategically positioned Anutin for reelection ahead of the dissolution of parliament on December 12, 2025.
Casey Bernett
References
(1) Displaced people in Cambodia: https://cambodianess.com/article/the-death-toll-in-cambodia-reaches-19-as-the-conflict-along-the-thai-border-continues
(2) Displaced people in Thailand: https://www.prd.go.th/th/content/category/detail/id/33/iid/457165
(3) Thai census including Khmer speakers in Surin province: https://web.archive.org/web/20120215221927/http://web.nso.go.th/pop2000/finalrep/surinfn.pdf
(4) Anutin suspension of peace accord: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/world/asia/thailand-cambodia-peace-talks-trump.html
(5) Anutin says the peace accord is void: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40058095
(6) Thai rationale for ending peace accord: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/10/asia/thailand-suspends-peace-accord-cambodia-intl-hnk
(7) Anutin public support for a constitutional referendum: https://prachataienglish.com/node/11587
(8) Anutin threat to dissolve parliament: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/politics/40057781
(9) People’s Power Ultimatum to Anutin: https://www.kaohoon.com/news/general/794526
(10) Anutin drop in the polls: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/thailand-floods-hit-pm-anutins-popularity-ahead-snap-polls-2025-12-01/
(11) IMF report on Thai economy and weakness: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/13/pr25367-thailand-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission
List of Thai Airstrikes on Cambodia
July 24, 2025, F-16 bombs a road near the 11th-century temple Preah Vihear, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/thailand-cambodia-border-dispute-07-24-25-intl-hnk
July 24, 2025, F-16 bombs border area (An Ses border checkpoint), https://www.naewna.com/local/901543
July 26, 2025, F-16 and Gripen bomb Ta Krabey area, https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40053130
July 27, 2025, F-16 bombing of Ta Krabey and Ta Muan temple areas, https://www.thaipbs.or.th/news/content/354714
December 8, 2025 at 09:05 am, Thai force Attacked Cambodian troops using F16- Fighter Jet at Sra Em Commune, Choam Ksan District, Preah Vihear Province, https://cnc.com.kh/detail/news/70894
Dec 08, 2025 at 13:02, Thai force began using F-16 Fighter jets to bomb Mum Bei 3 times with a total of 9 bombs
Source: CNC, Ministry of national defense
December 8, 2025, Griben bombin of Lim Heng Casino, O’Smach, https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/thai-gripen-airstrike-cambodia-border-conflict/
December 9, 2025, F-16 bombing in Oddar meanchey province, https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501803778/thailand-conducts-airstrikes-and-sends-tanks-into-cambodia-killing-at-least-four-civilians/
December 11, 2025, F-16 bombing of Banteay Ampil District, Oddar Meanchey province, https://www.thairath.co.th/news/local/2901108
December 13, 2025, F-16 bombing of Thmor Da bridges and hotel buildings, Pursat province, https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40059715
December 15, 2025, F-16 bombing of O Jik bridge, Srei Snam District, Siem Reap province, https://kiripost.com/stories/thai-f-16-strikes-deep-into-cambodia-two-bombs-hit-siem-reap-border-area
December 15, 2025, F-16 bombing in Banteay Meanchey province, https://www.thairath.co.th/news/local/northeast/2902043
Dec 18, 2025 at 09:51am, the Thai military deployed F-16 fighter jets to bomb the area of Phnom Kmoch, Preah Vichear province
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 18, 2025 at 10:07am, the Thai military deployed F-16 fighter jets to bomb the area of Peak Sbeak.
Source: Ministry of National Defense
Dec 18, 2025 at 11:06am, the Thai military deployed 2 bombs F-16 fighter jets to bomb the area of Poi Pet Municipality, Banteay Meanchey Province
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 18, 2025 at 14:32, the Thai military deployed F-16 fighter jets and dropped 2 bombs in the area of Serei Saophoan, Banteay Meanchey Province.
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 18, 2025 at 14:45, the Thai military deployed F-16 fighter jets and dropped 1 more bomb in the area of Serei Saophoan, Banteay Meanchey Province.
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 19, 2025 at 15:30, the Thai military deployed F-16 fighter jets to bomb the area of Peak Sbaek
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 19, 2025 at 22:55, the Thai military deployed a first strike of F-16 fighter jets to bombard and destroy the O’ Jik Bridge area at the border area between Chong Kal district Oddar Meanchey Province and Srei Snam District, Siem Reap province.
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 19, 2025, at 23:00, the Second boom of F-16 fighter jets dropped and destroyed the O’ Jik Bridge area at the border area between Chong Kal district Oddar Meanchey Province and Srei Snam District, Siem Reap province.
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 19, 2025, at 23:10, the Third boom of F-16 fighter jet dropped and destroyed the O’ Jik Bridge area at the border area between Chong Kal district Oddar Meanchey Province and Srei Snam District, Siem Reap province.
Source: Ministry of national defense
Dec 20, 2025, at 1:01am-11:16, the Thai military has deployed F-16 fighter jets to drop 2 bombs aimed to destroy Primary School, located in Thmar Da Commune, Veal Veng District, Pursat Province.
Source: Ministry of national defense
December 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. Thai F-16 strike in the 5th Military Region at the area of Phkoam Commune, Svay Chek District, Banteay Meanchey province at around 1PM today.